Minnick Defeats Sali

The race for Congress here in Idaho's 1st District pitted a socially moderate, fiscally conservative businessman/veteran who happens to be a Democrat against an incumbent, Bill Sali, who's basically an ineffective embarrassment to the district.

Because the MSM won't get off their butts and make the call, it looks like it's up to me to do so. With 452 of 469 precincts reporting, and Walt Minnick with a lead of over 4,500 votes, Bubblehead is projecting that Walt Minnick has defeated Bill Sali in Idaho's 1st Congressional District. The outstanding precincts are 5 in Canyon County (where Sali leads 54-46) and 12 in Bonner County (where Minnick leads 54-46). Congratulations to Walt, his staff, his supporters, and to all the citizens of this district who won't be embarrassed by their Congressman anymore!

Update 0610 05 November: The 5 precincts in Canyon County reported, reducing Minnick's lead to 3,500 votes. This leaves only the 12 precincts in far-north Bonner County yet to report, but Minnick was ahead 54-46 in the 21 precincts that had already reported there, so there're just not enough votes left for Sali to make up the difference. (In Idaho, absentee ballots have to be at the election office by 8 p.m. on election day, so there won't be a wait for them.)

Update 0859 05 November: One of the TV stations finally called it; it's now down to 4 precincts left, and Minnick has a 3,600 vote lead. Bill Sali supporter Adam has conceded the race (and turned comments off for his concession post, which is probably a smart move on his part), but the actual Congressman is tardy; I wonder if he's going to try to stretch this out until it gets embarrassing, which would be his style. Maybe he's hoping he'll get named to the soon-to-be vacant Lieutenant Governor spot -- after all, he's been such a big help to Gov. Otter in the past. *snicker*

Update 1008 05 November: Still no word from Bill Sali on when he's going to concede; Walt Minnick says he'll hold off on declaring victory until the last three precincts report. Chris at The Unequivocal Notion has a very good analysis about what this means for Idaho politics, and The MountainGoat report is collecting other reactions to this huge story.

Update 2140 05 November: Bill Sali has announced he's not going to concede the race until he's sure "all the votes are counted", despite the fact that all precincts have reported and the final margin is well outside the recount criteria. Representative de-elect Sali's non-concession notwithstanding, the two other current members of the Idaho Congressional delegation who are returning to D.C. next year (Rep. Simpson and Sen. Crapo) have already graciously called to congratulate Walt Minnick. "Graciousness" is a word we already knew wasn't in soon-to-be former Congressman Bill Sali's vocabulary, so I'm not surprised he's causing himself and his Party more embarrassment by failing to do the honorable thing. At this juncture, I think it's become a moot point; Congressman-elect Minnick will get sworn in on Janurary 3rd whether Bill Sali has "conceded" or not. And if the Capitol Police have to haul Sali and his staff out of the Congressional offices on that date because they're still not giving up, so be it.

Update 1253 06 November: Bill Sali did end up conceding in a voice mail to Walt Minnick last night. Dennis Mansfield has a positive post about his friend, the soon-to-be former Congressman.

Bill Sali Embarrasses Idaho Again

Fresh off his opening act of proposing to repeal the law of gravity while simultaneously dissing geologists, my Congressman, Bill Sali, once again is on his way to making the national news in a negative way. Congressman Sali made an appearance on a Christian radio show last week where he made some comments that reasonable people could infer were against any non-Christian expressions of religion in Congress:

Last month, the U.S. Senate was opened for the first time ever with a Hindu prayer. Although the event generated little outrage on Capitol Hill, Representative Bill Sali (R-Idaho) is one member of Congress who believes the prayer should have never been allowed.
"We have not only a Hindu prayer being offered in the Senate, we have a Muslim member of the House of Representatives now, Keith Ellison from Minnesota. Those are changes -- and they are not what was envisioned by the Founding Fathers," asserts Sali.
Sali says America was built on Christian principles that were derived from scripture. He also says the only way the United States has been allowed to exist in a world that is so hostile to Christian principles is through "the protective hand of God."
"You know, the Lord can cause the rain to fall on the just and the unjust alike," says the Idaho Republican.
According to Congressman Sali, the only way the U.S. can continue to survive is under that protective hand of God. He states when a Hindu prayer is offered, "that's a different god" and that it "creates problems for the longevity of this country."

The MountainGoat Report has links to some reactions to Rep. Sali's comments, and there's an article on the front page of today's Idaho Statesman that features some quick backtracking from the Congressman and his staff:

The election of a Muslim congressman by Minnesota voters was not "envisioned by the Founding Fathers," Idaho Congressman Bill Sali said this week.
But that doesn't mean Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison doesn't have every right to serve in Washington, D.C., Sali said.
He told the Statesman Friday that his comments quoted on a conservative Web site should not have given the impression that Ellison did not belong in Congress.
"He got elected the same way I did," Sali said. "People certainly have the right to elect anyone they want."...
...Sali said he has met fellow freshman Ellison and that he planned to call him to clarify what he was trying to say.
"I think that Keith deserves a call from me — not necessarily because of what's in my heart or in my mind, but because of how it's been portrayed," Sali said.

To be honest, and unfortunately, I really don't think there are a huge number of people who originally voted for Congressman Sali who would be that concerned about their representative not liking Muslims and Hindus that much. However, there is one fairly significant voting group here in the 1st District who, I believe, would be concerned if they considered some of the other religious groups that Congressman Sali's ideological allies might like to exclude from politics -- the Mormons. Members of the LDS Church have what I believe is a well-deserved repution for voting for Republican candidates by about a 2:1 margin or better. I don't know how many Mormons are in this district, but Idaho overall is about 20% LDS, so even if we only make up 15% of this district, the 5% plurality that those LDS voters would have given Mr. Sali in the last election (again, this is based on no real data) could have accounted for his margin of victory in 2006. Idaho Democratic Party chairman and former Congressman Richard Stallings made the point yesterday that Mormons should be concerned that those who hold the views expressed by Congressman Sali in the interview may target LDS Church members next.

As Alan at IdaBlue points out, I've been asking the Sali camp for some time what Mr. Sali's views are on the question of whether or not members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints are, in his opinion, Christians. This is a valid question, because the national leader of Mr. Sali's church, Chuck Smith, has statements on his web site indicating that he doesn't believe that Mormons are Christians; it would be fair to assume that this could be a teaching of Mr. Sali's church. Congressman Sali is, of course, free to believe that Mormons aren't Christians; however, since he says that his policy discussions with people of other faiths would start with core principles, but religion could play a role, I think that the voters in his district should know what his stand is on the "are Mormons Christians" question.

Yesterday, the Idaho Values Alliance came out with a statement in support of Congressman Sali (no surprise there) and at the end it included a plea for people to call Mr. Sali's local office to let them know how you felt. I took them up on that offer, and talked to a very nice, very professional young lady manning the phones at Sali HQ. I asked if the Congressman's press liaison, Wayne Hoffman, could give me a call to give me a statement on Mr. Sali's views on Mormons. To my great surprise, Mr. Hoffman phoned a few hours later, and I enjoyed a nice conversation and subsequent E-mail exchange with him. He seems like a good man for the very difficult job of being Rep. Sali's PR man, and the Congressman is lucky to have him on his staff. Here's the statement Mr. Hoffman provided me:

"Based on my knowledge of the Congressman, he has a lot of good friends who are LDS, and believes they worship the same God as he does. I don't know if Congressman Sali is versed enough in Mormon beliefs (to) comment further, except to say that he does have great respect and friendship with many of those practitioners of the Mormon faith.”

A very politic answer; I was impressed. I recognize that this question is one that Congressman Sali can't answer -- if he says he does believe Mormons are Christian, he makes his evangelical base mad, whereas he makes Mormon voters upset if he denies their Christianity. Still, it's hard to believe that someone who has lived in this part of Idaho for so many years could be so intellectually incurious that he wouldn't have actually reached his own conclusion on this question by this time. So, the question remains unanswered. If anyone happens to find themselves in a situation where Congressman Sali is actually answering questions from a non-screened audience (I know this isn't likely to happen), you should ask him the question directly and see how he responds -- it should be quite humorous. If he says he still doesn't know enough about Mormon beliefs, tell him that the Church would be happy to send a couple of nice young men or women around to talk to him about it.

(On a related note, I wrote back to Mr. Hoffman and asked him if he'd like to amend the statement to include an admission from the Congressman that he recognizes that Rep. Ellison also worships the same God as Rep. Sali; Mr. Hoffman declined to go that far, but in a nice way.)

Update 1557 11 Aug: Congressman Sali tried to explain himself to the editorial board of the Idaho Press-Tribune, but ended up just showing more clearly why some may question his knowledge of the U.S. and its traditions:

Friday, Sali said multiculturalism is in conflict with the national motto “E Pluribus Unum,” or “out of many, one.” He said multiculturalism would mean “out of the many, the many.”
“The question is, is multiculturalism good or not?” Sali said. “I don’t think the Founding Fathers were multicultural. Multiculturalism is the antithesis of (the motto).”

Congressman Sali must really want to move us back to the 1950s -- "E Pluribus Unum" hasn't ever officially been the national motto; we first got one in 1956: "In God We Trust". Why is Rep. Sali not wanting to acknowledge that God figures prominently in the national motto? And why does he seem to want to replace it with some phrase that isn't even in English? Latin comes from Italy -- is he trying to replace American culture with that of his family's native land? Voters should be given the answers to these questions!

Later, Congressman Sali tries to explain why Christianity is better than Hinduism and atheism:

In response to his concerns about the Hindu prayer offered in the Senate in July, Sali said it is Christianity that drives many good causes in the United States. “Christian principles work, and they show up in a lot of different areas,” Sali said. “Most of the hospitals in this country have Christian names. If you think Hindu prayer is great, where are the Hindu hospitals in this country? Go down the list. Where are the atheist hospitals in this country? They’re not equal.”

Mr. Sali has an interesting point; however, I'm not sure it's exactly applicable. Cuba has lots of athiest hospitals, and not very many Christian ones. Does that mean that the Congressman believes atheism is better for Cuba than Christianity? Also, I'd hazard to guess that most of the Christian hospitals in this country have Catholic names. Does this mean that Rep. Sali believes that Catholicism is the best form of Christianity?

While I personally believe that Christianity is "better" than Hinduism or atheism, I'm just a lowly submarine blogger, and not a Congressman who is supposed to represent the interests of all his constituents. Rep. Sali just seems to be digging himself into a deeper and deeper hole every time he opens his mouth -- I'm just going to sit back, pull out some roasting marshmallows, and enjoy the show (and maybe throw a little more fuel on the fire while I'm at it).

Update 1935 11 Aug: Adam points out that those of us attacking (or making fun of) Congressman Sali never have anything good to say about him or bad to say about the Democrats running Congress. I haven't said bad things about Congress because, although the Democrats in Congress frequently say dumb things, so far they've passed the bills that need to be passed (the FISA bill, the emergency wartime supplemental, funding for two submarines per year, etc.) -- as I predicted they would last year. However, I'm not so sure that moderate Democrat Larry Grant wouldn't have also voted for those bills. As far as Congressman Sali goes, I'm of course happy that he voted for the wartime supplemental and FISA bill, and I like a lot of what he's been saying about reforming Congress -- I think he's just too much of a polarizing person to actually get it accomplished. One specific thing that impressed me was that he actually got an amendment that he sponsored to an actual bill passed. I honestly didn't think he had it in him, so I was pleasantly surprised.

Update 0521 19 Aug: The first set of Letters to the Editor on this issue came out in today's Idaho Statesman. They were 10-3 against Congressman Sali.

Bubblehead The (Politicial) Journalist

Fresh on the heels of my widely-praised first foray into citizen-journalism (when I covered the opening of the Locust Grove overpass over I-84 last year), I decided to expand my horizons and join the monolithic and impersonal MSM in covering a local political event. Here's a timeline of what happened next:

- 2300, 15 October: I noticed a post over at submariner Dale's blog that said that the Veterans for Sali (who I blogged about last week) would be having a press conference in Garden City at 1000 the next day. I checked out the link to the videos the Sali campaign had posted about the group, and found a questionable statement about 40 seconds into one of them:



For those who didn't watch it, 14-year Army veteran Mark says that he "served eight years of the time under Bill Clinton without one pay raise...". Since I distinctly remember getting annual raises during the Clinton years, along with fogeys (longevity pay increases) every two years, my keen journalistic insights convinced me that this statement was demonstrably untrue. I also knew that the Sali camp loves joking around with people from the opposing campaign, so I knew they wouldn't mind a little good-natured ribbing by me of some of their supporters. So as to be well-rested for my new role as a Political Journalist, I went to bed about midnight.

- 0900, 16 October: "Hey, are you going to sleep the whole day?" I hear from my wife. Oops! (In my defense, I'm just coming off of night shift where I sleep only 3-4 hours a day during the work week, and I needed an equalizer.) A quick shower and a review of directions to the press conference, and I'm out the door. Forgot to bring any paper to write stuff down on, but I have a keyboard on my phone, so I'm covered.

- 1000, 16 October: I arrived at the site of the press conference -- Pastry Perfection on Glenwood Street. Undistracted by the really good smell, I looked around for my fellow journalists; Unfortunately, I was the first one there, so I had no idea what to do. Some of the members of the Veterans for Sali group came up to check me out; I was in my "Retired Navy" hat, so they thought I might be one of them. No, I told them, I'm a Citizen-Journalist in the Noble Traditions of the Pamphleteers of the American Revolution. (It sounds a lot better than "blogger".) They seemed confused, but welcomed me anyway. I stood around until the rest of the press arrived: Ysabel Bilbao from Channel 7, and Lincoln Graves from Channel 6 were to be my peers today! (Actually, they were both way more professional and personable than me, in addition to being a lot more attractive. Neither looks like they've ever had a pimple in their life; I, on the other hand, look like some sort of toad. Not that I was intimidated -- I can Speak Truth to Power since I wasn't a pawn of the Corporate Media like they were!)

The camera got set up, and the co-chair of Veterans for Sali, retired Major General Ben Doty, made some remarks, followed by Ada County Republican Chair Marcel Bujarkski. Everyone sat down and the TV reporter went to talk to some of the members, but the Press wasn't done yet! I raised my hand, and began my hard-hitting journalism. I told General Doty about the video mentioned above (he is in it, and was there during the filming), and asked him if it's true that the military got no raises during the Clinton Administration. He admitted that this isn't the case; another Veteran says that it was only the Republican Congress that made Clinton give out raises. I mentioned that we always got a raise of at least 2.2% during the 90s, even before the Republicans took over Congress in 1994. I then asked about all the Veterans listed on the website who were said to be "Retired", when clearly many of them weren't. General Doty once again admitted that there were several who weren't technically "retired".

As a Citizen Journalist, I know that "attack journalism" is an important part of the game, so I asked General Doty if he personally was going to vote for Bill Sali. (By the Investigative Journalistic technique of typing his name plus "boise, idaho" into Google, I figured out that he lived a couple of blocks outside of the 1st Congressional District; the district line essentially divides the Boise/Meridian metroplex in half.) Here's a transcript of what I remember happened next:

BH: "General Doty, will you personally vote for Bill Sali?"
GD: "I've already voted."
BH: "But did you vote for Bill Sali?"
GD: (voice rising, understandably, since I'm being a jerk) "I don't have to say who I voted for!"
BH: "Fair enough, since I know you live in the 2nd District. Show of hands, please -- how many people here actually live in the 1st District?"
(Several hands went up; one person says, "I used to live in the First District.")

As this is going on, one of the reporters was trying to get a mic back onto someone so they could pick up the exchange, but it ended before they were successful. After that, I sat down and talked to some of the Veterans while the camera crews got some crowd shots. Some said that what we got in the Clinton years weren't really "pay raises" since they were already required by law. Others said that anyone who had finished up their enlistment should be considered "retired".

The Sali campaign had a representative there, Noah Wall. He handled the unexpected intrusion of a Citizen Journalist well, and even gave me a copy of the press release. Afterwards, he made an official statement to the effect of: "The statements made by Veterans in the video in question were unscripted, and are their own opinions and not necessarily those of the Sali campaign. Also, any errors on the website (with respect to the "Retired" status of the members of Veterans for Sali) will be corrected as soon as possible."

Since I know that journalists traditionally print portions of press releases to get them up to their required word count, here's part of what the Veterans for Sali press release says:

A far-left group called “Patriot Majority West,” has launched misleading and dishonest attack-ad against Idaho Congressman Bill Sali. Patriot Majority West is attempting to deceive Idaho’s veterans and their families by blaming Sali for voting against flawed legislation.
“Bill Sali would never vote against our veterans – he voted against flawed legislation which would have in fact caused great harm to our troops,” said Major General Ben Doty (ret.).
Doty added, “this group calls itself the Patriot Majority but is criticizing Sali, a man who has always sided with us. They are trying to discredit an effective ally of those who have served our country.”
Matt Salisbury, Sali’s opponent in the primary is a member of Veterans for Sali. When asked about the attack-ad he responded in saying, “Bill Sali has been a firm supporter of our veterans. In Congress he has made the right votes and always made sure America’s heroes have received the help they need.”

The rest of the press release can be found here. Interestingly, the Minnick campaign put out a press release today where they point out that Salisbury was correct in questioning Sali's failure to vote for funding into research for traumatic brain injuries for servicepeople and veterans, so I guess Sali didn't always "make the right votes".

- 1045, 16 October: The intrepid Citizen Journalist leaves the press conference and drives south, following the Congressional District dividing line. He needs to pick up bananas and milk at Costco.

Update 2043 16 October: I just realized that I have a typo on "Political" in the title of this post; I guess that's why I'm only an amateur journalist. Some people have already linked to this post, however, so I can't change it without breaking their links. Feel free to give me crap in the comments.

Town Hall Meeting With Congressman Bill Sali

I went to a hurriedly-scheduled "town hall" meeting today with my Congressman, Bill Sali. Long-time readers will remember that I'm not a big fan of Bill Sali; I feel that our district deserves a Congressman who is able to work with people to get things done, rather than just embarrass himself with insensitive gaffes and be on the losing end of a bunch of 403-18 votes.

The meeting started about 10 minutes after the scheduled noon start time; here's who was there:

We ended up with a few people showing up late, so overall attendence was about 30 people -- probably 90% of them Sali supporters. Congressman Sali has always been very personable when I've seen him before, and today was no exception. He opened the meeting by apologizing for the short notice, and explained that he had planned to go to ANWR this weekend; unfortunately, he was unable to arrange for transportation. He said the reason for that was that the "Democrat Congress" had passed an ethics bill that made it so that Congressmen couldn't get free airplane rides from lobbyists anymore -- apparently, he's against that restriction.

He started off talking about high energy prices, and said that our problems are caused by the "Democrat Congress" not allowing us to drill off the coast and in ANWR. Never mentioned was the fact that it would take years for any of this oil to get into the marketplace, and it would have no real effect on prices for a long time. While I personally don't have a big problem with drilling for oil where we can in an environmentally-conscious manner, I do know that it's neither a short-term nor a long-term solution to our problems by itself -- ANWR would provide maybe 1% of world oil production by 2030.

He then moved on to attacking entitlements, including problems with Social Security. I asked him about his campaign promise in 2006 to reveal his plan that would "protect Medicare and Social Security for all generations" by reducing payroll taxes. Amazingly, he flat-out admitted that he was wrong; he claimed he "had" a plan, but when people with an actual clue looked at the numbers, they convinced him it wouldn't work. Then an older woman mentioned how her Social Security check wasn't going very far, and the crowd started getting ugly. While Congresman Sali responded to the woman with comforting words, I heard people snidely whispering behind me that "I bet she hasn't paid into Social Security as much as she's getting out." Congressman Sali, who had attacked opponent Larry Grant in 2006 over his admission that we'd have to balance intakes and outlays of the program (either by increasing payroll taxes or pushing back the retirement age sometime in the next 30 years), basically admitted that the math just doesn't add up -- by 2040, you'll have 2 contributors for every recipient under the current rules. While he's a canny enough politician not to come out and say that you'd have to reduce or delay benefits to get it to work, it was clear he thought that was the only option if we want to keep Social Security solvent.

The overall tenor of Congressman Sali and his supporters was that "people screwed it up in the past" and that had people only followed their principles, we wouldn't be having these problems. They might be right. That being said, it doesn't help us now to only provide "we told you so" as a solution. Any possible solution they offered was either patently absurd, against the laws of physics, or (most often) politically impossible. (One person suggested President Bush declare a "National Emergency" and rule by decree. Congressman Sali said the President should "keep that option on the table.")

At this point, a Sali supporter asked him if Congressman Sali ever gets down-hearted by all the people saying bad things about him; specifically mentioned was the new "Bill Sali Hates Idaho" website. Bill Sali said basically that he's OK with himself standing by his principles, and if the people elect someone else, he'll take it with good grace. I followed up by asking him, in the manner of Bob Slydell from "Office Space", a variation on "What exactly is it that you do here?" [Long version of the question: I first thanked him for getting the PUC for VO-67, and then pointed out that he really hasn't accomplished anything else tangible during his tenure, other than be on the losing end of a bunch of lopsided votes. I mentioned that his much-hyped "Always Think Freedom" bill wouldn't even get a hearing (he didn't disagree), postulated that his "Simplify the Tax Forms" amendment would probably get dropped in conference (he said he thinks it will survive, so I'll believe him for now, even though he didn't disagree with my characterization of it as "without metrics" and therefore basically meaningless), and pointed out that his co-sponsorship of bills like Rep. Ron Paul's "U.S. Out Of The UN" H. R. 1146 was completely pointless, since there's no chance that any of these bills will even get a committee hearing. I concluded that the only tangible effect of having him in Congress seemed to be that our district got less federal money than we would have had we elected a Democrat in 2006.] He chose to focus on why he signed on to co-sponsor the UN Bill, and fell back on "American sovereignty" -- he didn't mention why he wasn't supporting a "U.S. Out Of NATO" bill, since that organization actually would force us to go to war when we might not want to, which seems like a bigger threat to our sovereignty than the UN would ever be. He then went on to claim, bizarrely, that he doesn't think the House leadership would have given more money (in the form of earmarks) to a freshman Democrat in an unsafe district; instead, he claimed that he'd gotten more earmarks than "most" of the freshman Democrats. Other than my amazement at seeing a supposedly fiscally-conservative Congressman claiming as his main achievement a whole bunch of earmarks, I really doubt that he had more than "most" freshman Democrats (since that group got $237 million in earmarks, and freshman Republicans got only $36 million) -- maybe he did, though, because the district has so much land. Hopefully Mountain Goat has the research on that tucked away somewhere.

At this point the meeting got a little uglier. One woman behind us complained about everyone having an "entitlement mentality" and wondering why the government had to help people at all, especially people who were hit by natural disasters. Congressman Sali admitted that he thought that there were things the federal government probably should do to help people in that situation. (He didn't mention the actual unspoken reason that the elites decided long ago to help people down on their luck -- that it's much better to make sure everyone has enough to eat than to drive them to desperation, where they end up robbing people like the woman who complained about her tax dollars going to help "undeserving" people.) Another woman in the row behind us then started to quiz Sali about his salary and benefits; her point seemed to be that people who work for the government shouldn't have pensions or health care. Poor Congressman Sali tried to protect himself from the onslaught, and I felt so sorry for him that I spoke up and said that I thought I had earned my government pension. The woman was gathering herself up to keep going when SubBasket turned and asked the woman if she thought that having to go through 4 six-month separations didn't maybe mean I'd earned something. The woman behind us didn't say another word. After that, a woman complained about the state of education in the country; Congressman Sali replied that one of the problems is that we can't even hire all of the foreign students who get advanced degrees here. Apparently, he supports the granting of more H-1B visas; interestingly, he doesn't mention that on his campaign website.

Towards the end, Congressman Sali got philosophical, and admitted that he hadn't really understood when he took office how complicated things like foreign relations were. He also said that he doesn't want to be an "alarmist", but he's worried that our economy could get much, much worse by the end of the year, even worse than during the Great Depression. He seemed much more honest to me than he has in the past; I think he's starting to realize that he really is in over his head. I can admire a man who stands by his beliefs; I just don't want him as my Congressman if he's completely useless. Hopefully, by early next January, Bill Sali will be able to return home -- although he did say that, if he lost, he didn't know where "home" might be, since he didn't want to live someplace that didn't vote for someone like him. I'm thinking ANWR might be a good place for him to put down roots...

Update 2051 13 July: When I was at work today, I remembered an additional piece of information from the meeting. Congressman Sali did seem to suggest that Social Security could be "saved" by the government getting $60 trillion (say it like Dr. Evil for full effect) by having all energy in government lands extracted -- here's another Congressman talking about that. I put this under both the "patently absurd" and "against the laws of physics" categories, in that most of the energy can't be extracted with any current or planned technology, our current GDP is only about $13.3 trillion (so who's going to pay all this money that doesn't exist?), and when you've collected all the money (if it was even possible) you now have no energy supplies left in the country.

Why I Support Larry Grant

[Local Idaho politics warning!]

Idaho had their primary election this Tuesday, and the slate for the open 1st Congressional District race is set: Democrat Larry Grant vs. Republican Bill Sali. Earlier this month, I blogged about why I, a lifelong Republican, was going to be voting for Democrats this November. When it comes to the national aspects of the race, I admit that there's a little bit of a "lesser of two evils" going on there -- two years of Rep. Pelosi as Speaker is a price I'm willing to pay to get the current crop of Republican legislative leaders to realize we're upset and to change the way they've been doing business (or get the voters to replace them with someone who will). In this race, however, I'm supporting Larry Grant not only because Bill Sali is a bad choice, but because Larry is a good one.

I first became aware of Larry Grant when I read a newspaper article about his campaign blog. I posted a snarky comment asking some questions about an entry his web manager had posted about Iraq, and was surprised to receive a thoughtful reply from the candidate himself. I did some more research, and found that Larry's really a moderate -- in most states I've been stationed in, his views were pretty much in line with mainstream Republican thought.

While people might be expected to emphasize their more "extreme" views during the primary race, and move back to the center for the general election, Larry was willing to take positions his Democratic "base" might be expected to oppose (like during this liveblog session, where he supported the concept of free trade). This showed me that he has actual values that he believes in, as opposed to those who will say anything to get elected. He's been a businessman his whole life, so he knows the importance of being fiscally responsible. He's also willing to admit that there are times he might change his mind if he gets additional information, which is why I'm not worried that some of his ideas on Iraq don't square with mine (permanent bases, etc) -- as he says: "I do not have, of course, access to all the military intelligence that would be available to me as a member of Congress...". He seems like a smart guy, and once he gets some more information, I'm sure he'll apply his business acumen to the problem and be a strong voice for innovative solutions.

Larry's opponent, Bill Sali, is a very, very conservative politician. His main monetary support has come from the "Club For Growth", an organization that exists solely to oppose taxes, as near as I can tell. Sali frequently mentioned that there are 105 congressmen who support the Club's activities him from the Republican Study Group (sentence edited; see below) -- I wondered if they've been putting their rhetoric into action. Sali says he supports reducing government spending; have his 105 friends been voting that way? This year's Agriculture budget bill increased President Bush's proposed spending by $564M; only 46 congressmen voted against it; of these, only 24 were Republicans. I'm pretty sure 24 is less than 105. The Energy and Water Development Budget was the same way -- only 14 Republicans voted against it, despite the pork-laden nature of the bill. Could we expect Sali to vote any differently than his 105 anti-tax buddies?

From his campaign website, it looks like Sali will be running on the issues that appeal to hard-core conservatives most. He lists 10 issues of importance to him, and expands on his views on five of them. Interestingly, the only mention of the military comes last on his list, and he apparently doesn't feel it's important enough to explain more about how he feels about the issue beyond "supporting our troops". He also obliquely mentions national security when talking about immigration. He supports using the National Guard to police the border without ever explaining how he would get around that pesky "Posse Comitatus" law.

Sali said on election night that people should vote for him, or otherwise Nancy Pelosi would become Speaker of the House. However, if current trends hold, the Dems are probably going to take control of the House no matter who's elected in Idaho's 1st district. I submit that it'd be better for western Idahoans to have a moderate Democrat who has a voice within the new House leadership representing them, rather than a bomb-throwing extremist from the opposition.

My good friends Adam Graham and Clayton Cramer are supporting Bill Sali, so I expect some interesting debate about the issue within the Idaho blogosphere. Hopefully this race can focus on the issues and the direction our country is heading, but based on the nastiness of the Republican primary, I don't think this will happen. So far Sali seems to be trying to paint Larry Grant as a liberal, which I think won't work... in addition to being incorrect, I think there will be a lot of traditional Republicans who come out to express their concern with Sali's strident ways.

Should be an interesting 5 1/2 months between now and November...

Update 1518 27 May: Edited to change the identity of the 105 supporters from "Club For Growth" to "Republican Study Group", although their announced goals look pretty much the same. I also forgot to mention that my good friend girlfriday had previously come out for Sali. Also, Diana says some nice things about me over at her place.

Update 0703 28 May: Adam Graham responds to my post here, and I gave a little bit of a rebuttal in his comments. I also found this compilation of quotes and links about how regular Idaho politicians, the ones who know Bill Sali best, really don't like him (don't like Sali, that is, not Adam).

Idaho House, Gov Races Statistical Dead Heats

(Update 2333 02 Nov: An even newer poll shows Larry Grant leading Bill Sali 38-34%)

If you needed more proof that the Republicans aren't doing too well nationally, look no further than Idaho -- a state President Bush took with over 68% of the vote in 2004. From an Idaho Statesman poll that came out this weekend:

Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democrat Jerry Brady in the race for governor, 44 percent to 43 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

In the open 1st District Congress contest to replace Otter, Republican state Rep. Bill Sali leads Democrat Larry Grant 39 percent to 37 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

We know the national Republican party is worried -- they're sending Vice President Cheney out here a second time since August. To me, the most interesting parts of the poll were the "unfavorable" numbers. Republican Bill Sali was evenly split between favorable and unfavorable, with 33% for each, while Democrat Larry Grant had only a 13% unfavorable rating -- and this poll was taken about a week into a massive (for Idaho) media buy of negative commercials against Grant from various out-of-state special interests.

I'm not really sure if these results are due to statewide revulsion with national Republican politics, or if it's more because, in Jerry Brady and Larry Grant, the Idaho Dems came up with some really good candidates, while the Republican candidates aren't quite up to snuff. In the case of Bill Sali, especially, it appears that the Republicans probably couldn't have come up with a worse candidate. In addition to having questions about a recent lawsuit haunting him, he basically refuses to answer any questions -- most embarrassingly, his explanation of why he failed to come up with a position on Proposition 2 (the zoning change payoff proposal that basically all reasonable Idaho pols, Democrat and Republican, have come out against, but is backed by Mr. Sali's "Club For Growth" bankroller in New York).

Mr. Sali does have his supporters in the Idaho blogosphere, some of whom actually live in the 1st District. Posting most frequently have been Adam at Adam's Blog and fellow submariner Dale over at Right Mind, while Idaho überblogger Clayton Cramer and Girlfriday occasionally speak up. Most of the rest of the Idaho political blogosphere (a sampling of which can be found on the right) is solidly in Larry Grant's corner -- as are essentially all the newspapers.

While a betting man would probably still put his money on the Republicans in these two races, they're a lot closer than they would be if there wasn't something unusual going on. If the Republicans can't hold Idaho, though, they're in for a long night next Tuesday.

Background -- My previous posts on the election include the following (in semi-random order):

Why The Republicans Are Losing My Vote
Why I Support Larry Grant
Another Idaho Election Update
Can Someone Explain To Me...
An Open E-mail To The Bill Sali Campaign
Idaho Politics Update
Thrown Out Of The Idaho Republican Party
Vice President Cheney Visit To Boise -- A Success?
Idaho Democrats -- Against The Mexican War!
More Questions For Mr. Sali
The Importance Of Using Good English

Lastly, my personal favorite...
Bill Sali And The Underpants Gnomes

Why Bill Sali Is #423

My congressman, Bill Sali, was recently ranked as the 423rd "most" effective Congressman (of 435) in a survey of Congressional influence. This brings up the question -- why would Idahoans want to return someone so obviously ineffective to Congress in November? This analysis has one possible explanation:

Jasper LiCalzi, a professor of political economy at the College of Idaho in Caldwell, deep in Sali's district, said one reason for the winners' success is, Idaho voters love a "standing at the breach" attitude. Chenoweth, for instance, once accused federal agents of using black helicopter gunships to harass ranchers.
"They said, 'She's a wacko. She's out of the mainstream. She's extremist,' " LiCalzi recalled. "But Idahoans love that kind of individualistic mentality. With Sali, he may be trying to be like Davy Crockett at the Alamo: He gets killed, but he stands for what he believes in."

I'm going to go on record as saying that I don't think this viewpoint really represents the Idaho of the 21st century. Sure, there are quite a few fairly loud people who espouse the "we'd rather be right than be in power" attitude, but I think there we're seeing fewer and fewer of them as the world becomes more connected. My evidence? Consider that Bill Sali won the Republican primary in 2006 with only 26% of the vote, and couldn't even pull in 50% of the vote in the general election in a year where Republicans won all the statewide offices and he enjoyed a significant campaign fundraising advantage over his opponent. While he claims to represent the wishes of the voters of the district, there's a lot of evidence that his reflexive Club For Growth-inspired dictums are out of touch with the majority of the voters; for example, while he says he's never voted for a tax increase, the voters in the 1st District routinely pass school bonds (which increase their property taxes) with substantial supermajorities.

This year, where Mr. Sali's fundraising is running well behind his moderate opponent, Walt Minnick, voters will be able to look back on Sali's record in Congress. While Sali's team hopes they'll perceive a man who's valiantly standing up for principles, I think they'll see a man who's so utterly ineffective that it's almost laughable, backed by an organization and staff who's well-publicized incompetence reflects fully on the decision-making capabilities of their boss.

Here are some examples of Mr. Sali's ineffectiveness, incompetence, and general unseriousness:

1) Announced that he was submitting a bill to repeal the Law of Gravity (complete with an amusing mis-spelling) to protest what he was as Congress' unconstitutional attempt to raise the minimum wage.(Even more amusing, he ended up voting for the minimum wage increase as part of a combined bill.)

2) Failure to properly submit required Campaign Finance Reports in a timely manner. For the most recent quarter, he was one of only 2 Congressmen who were late in filing -- and when he finally turned it in, it was still wrong.

3) Being forced to apologize for comments widely considered to be insensitive to religious minorities.

4) Making a big deal out of opposing the approval of a Mexican consulate in Boise -- only to have the Administration (of his own party) shoot him down in record time.

5) Claiming to have stopped the ATF from using a slogan they'd actually stopped using 2 months earlier -- and then further subjecting his staff to embarrassment by demanding an apology from the ATF for his staff's inability to use Google.

6) Suggesting that we can get more money than exists in the world by leasing government land for oil and mineral exploitation, and seeming to think that we can get crude oil from trees. (Congressman Sali seems like one of those Representatives you hear about sometimes who try to make the Patent Office issue a patent to someone with a perpetual motion machine.)

7) Being on the losing end of so many lopsided votes, including many that go against the district's best interests, that it's almost comical.

The list goes on and on. Feel free to add more in the comments, or on your own blogs.

I can usually admire a man who stands on principle, even when I don't agree with his principles. When it reaches the point where an entire congressional district is left without effective, competent representation, however, I have to draw the line. I think most people in this district probably don't support many (or most) of the more extreme proposals put forth by the Democratic leadership in Congress -- I'm one of those people. Here's the thing: when Speaker Pelosi is putting together her legislative strategy, she doesn't spend a second thinking about Bill Sali -- she's not going to get his vote no matter what she does on anything controversial. You know who she does worry about? It's the conservative and moderate Democrats who she needs to maintain her majority -- especially those in traditionally Republican districts. If she tries to go too far, these men and women will let her know, in no uncertain terms, that they can't support her proposals; if they did, they'd probably find themselves out on the street at the next election. This small group of about 45-50 Democrats (including the "Blue Dog Coalition") are the people who really control what's going to pass in the House. Bill Sali can never hope to have this kind of influence that Walt Minnick will have. And since Walt's moderate values and policy proposals align quite well with all but the most extreme voters in the district, it'll be an easy choice for 1st District residents to make in November.

Update 0707 08 Aug: Adam responds to my post here. Also, I edited one really ungrammatical sentence above.

Bill Sali Fan Hangs It Up

Based on this comment over at HBO, it looks like Idaho satire blog personality Bill Sali Fan is giving up the ghost. As the writer of Standing Up To Pelosi, it appears that Bill Sali Fan used BlameBush! as a model for satire, except he was in "favor" of his target rather than "against" him -- I guess kind of like Shelley The Republican.

Personally, I thought there was some clever writing going on over at BSF's site, and I was hoping to get the opinion of my regular readers to see if they agree. Check out this post defending Idaho Senator Larry Craig posted soon after news of his arrest came out. (Very bad word warning!) So what do you think... does Bill Sali Fan have any talent as a writer?

Many have wondered what BSF's motivation was. As near as I can tell, he started the blog right after Bill Sali's victory in 2006, hoping to become established enough that by the time the 2008 election rolled around, Bill Sali might actually link to BSF as a "supporter", and then people could make fun of Bill Sali for not recognizing obvious satire. Unfortunately, BSF made it too obvious, even to true believers, that he was engaged in satire, and that plan fell through. My guess is that he just kept writing afterwards because he thought it was funny.

"Veterans For Sali" Group Seems To Underscore Bill Sali's Failure To Understand The Military

My Congressman, Bill Sali, recently announced the formation of a group called "Veterans For Sali", as a counterweight to the fact that his opponent, Walt Minnick, is an actual veteran himself. I'm all for Veterans speaking out in favor of the candidate of their choice, and I'm glad whenever I see a politically-active Veteran. What I find discouraging about this announcement, however, is that the press release listing the members of the new group once again displays Bill Sali and his staff's complete obliviousness to military culture.

In almost all cases, the press release (mirrored over at Right Mind, run by submariner Dale up in Northern Idaho) lists the members as "Retired". In common military usage, when you say someone is "Retired", it means that they're drawing either a retainer or retired pay, usually after completing at least 20 years of active service (or less during drawdowns), or are medically retired due to injury. It seemed surprising to me that such a large majority of the Sali supporters should have been "Retired", vice the equally honorable title "Veteran", that I checked into a few of them. One, Idaho Speaker of the House Lawerence Denney, is listed here as serving only 2 years in the Army -- granted, he may have been medically retired. Another, Jesse Dollemore, is only about 33 years old. If they're not actually "Retired" in the most commonly-used sense of the word, that doesn't make their endorsement any less important. It does, however, call into question the suitability of Bill Sali to continue serving in the U.S. Congress when he doesn't understand this important distinction in terminology.

Update 1230 10 Oct: I E-mailed Congressman Sali's spokesman to see if he wanted to comment, and also placed a call to General Doty, one of the group's co-chairs (who, like a lot of Bill Sali's most outspoken supporters, doesn't seem to actually live in the 1st District); I'll let you know if they respond. I also noticed that Commssioner Fred Tilman, listed as "Retired" on the list, actually served for three years in the Army. Once again, he may have been medically retired, but I'm thinking that it's fairly unlikely that two prominent Idaho politicians would have the same story.

Update 1456 10 Oct: I got a call back from General Doty and we had a very pleasant conversation. As I expected, he had not seen the actual list of the members of the group (he's been out enjoying Idaho's great outdoors), because otherwise I'm sure he would have caught the discrepancy. He did confirm that many of the group's members are, in fact, not retired, but served honorably as Veterans without having enough Time In Service to officially "Retire". Therefore, it appears to be simply a case of the Sali staff once again demonstrating their ineptitude.

Bill Sali Tells Untruths About Idaho's Military Heritage

In a profile of Congressman Bill Sali in the Idaho Statesman today I was surprised to read this little tidbit:

Sali was born in Portsmouth, Ohio, where his father, Gregory, a nuclear physicist, was working on nuclear defense projects. The Salis soon moved to Windsor Locks, Conn., where his father worked on the first nuclear submarine prototype.
Concerned the Soviets were stealing his designs, the Canadian immigrant decided to give up his trade and start over in Idaho in 1962, when the future congressman was 8, Sali said. Even though his father spoke German as a child, he learned English, one of the reasons Sali wants to make English the official language of the nation.

I would have to assume that the reporter who wrote the story didn't make up the part about Windsor Locks having the "first" nuclear submarine prototype, so one could reasonably assume that he heard that from Mr. Sali. Unless his father was commuting from Connecticut to Idaho Falls, there's no way he could have worked on the "first" submarine prototype, since that is right here in Idaho -- the S1W land-based prototype for the USS Nautilus (SSN 571), which reached criticality before Bill Sali was born (and therefore before his family moved from Ohio to Connecticut). The only prototype in Windsor Falls, CT, was the S1C reactor for the electric-drive USS Tullibee (SSN 597).

I'm sure Bill Sali "remembers" his father telling him he worked at the first submarine prototype, and I know people are eager to believe everything their father tells them. After a while, though, people need to look for actual facts, and it seems like a Congressman from Idaho should be aware that the first land-based submarine prototype is in this great state. Of course, most Congressman are probably a lot more interested in at least trying to understand the military than Bill Sali apparently is. Since Sali's opponent, Walt Minnick, actually served in the military, western Idahoans have a chance to actually elect a Congressman next month who does know the military and its culture.

Update 0821 20 October: The error's been corrected in the online version of the story.

Bill Sali And The Underpants Gnomes

It's after Labor Day now, so the Idaho 1st Congressional District race is heating up. Until now, it's been really hard to do any analysis of the proposed policies of the Republican candidate for this office, Bill Sali, because his website was surprisingly free of any actual information concerning what he would specifically do if he's elected. This week, though, his campaign has put four "press release"-type items on the site, so we'll get a chance to see if he's planning on offering anything other than generalities. (I have a chance to look over these items because I'm still waiting for his campaign's response to the E-mail I sent them last month looking for specific information.)

The biggest proposal Mr. Sali came up with has to do with cutting the payroll tax; he initially floated this at a Labor Day picnic here in Meridian (two reports on this picnic can be found here and here). I was amazed at what he said the result of this cut would be; first, though, I should provide a little background information:

Back in the second season of South Park, one of the funnier episodes was called "Gnomes"; it features a group of gnomes (duh!) with an stunning business plan, to wit:

1. Collect underpants
2. ????????
3. Profit!

Back to Mr. Sali's plan to cut the payroll tax -- here's what his press release says:

“Cutting payroll taxes will stimulate the economy and will provide real and immediate relief to the working Americans,” Sali told a crowd gathered at a Meridian park for a Labor Day picnic sponsored by the Sali campaign. Representative Sali noted that his plan will also protect Medicare and Social Security for every generation.

[Emphasis mine] Wow! That's pretty impressive. Let's look at this in terms of the gnome's business plan:

1. Cut payroll tax
2. ????????
3. Protect Medicare and Social Security for every generation!

I'm not quite sure that this works from a macroeconomic point of view. At some point in my lifetime, Social Security is going to reach a crisis point, as Rep. Bob Beauprez (R-CO) points out in this speech. By 2040, there will be only two workers for each beneficiary; the worker/beneficiary ration will start dropping quickly in 2008, when the first baby boomers start turning 62. It doesn't make any sense to anyone, except maybe Mr. Sali, how we can lower payroll taxes, have fewer people paying in for more beneficiaries, and not cut benefits or raise the retirement age. And seriously -- while cutting the payroll tax might result in short-term economic stimulus, does Mr. Sali really think that it would be enough to "protect Medicare and Social Security for every generation"? I'd need to see some numbers on that claim. (And c'mon -- if payroll tax cuts, obviously a popular item, were really going to be able to fix everything, don't you think President Bush would have proposed them? Or does Mr. Sali think he's smarter than President Bush and Vice President Cheney on this matter? Or is it more likely that they've done the math and realize it's an unreasonable proposal?)

This demonstrates a problem that Mr. Sali's opponent, Larry Grant, will have in this race. Larry is a successful businessman, and seems unable to say something completely ridiculous just because he thinks it would make a good sound bite. Another of Mr. Sali's press releases says that Larry has "vowed to raise" payroll taxes, and he provides a link to Larry's answers to a questionnaire at Project Vote Smart. (Interestingly, Mr. Sali has himself so far refused to fill out the same survey -- as I said, he apparently doesn't want anyone to know any specifics about his ideas.) I read Larry's responses as indicating actions he would take to save Social Security in its present form for the long term -- he's not calling for an immediate increase in payroll taxes. He's a smart guy, he's looked at the math, and he knows that if we don't increase the amount of money going into the system, or raise the retirement age, increased life expectancy and the declining birth rate of the last 40 years will result in insolvency unless action is taken -- action that doesn't involve just cutting payroll taxes.

At the end of the press release about payroll tax cuts, Mr. Sali says that “My opponent’s positions clearly demonstrate he is no moderate. He is a liberal.” I find this very interesting -- none other than Howard Dean had a similar proposal to Mr. Sali's in the last presidential campaign. If Mr. Sali agrees with Gov. Dean, then where does that put him on the liberal/conservative scale? (Yes, I know that's not a fair comparison, but I think it shows that Mr. Sali's seemingly simplistic view of what is liberal and what is moderate isn't really accurate.)

I'm looking forward to any more specific proposals Mr. Sali comes up with -- like exactly what government spending he plans to cut that would allow him to balance the budget without raising taxes, remembering that non-defense discretionary spending makes up only about $600B (a little under 25%) of the budget -- or does he plan on cutting defense spending as well? The current budget deficit is on the order of $300B; will he cut non-defense discretionary spending in half? Does he realize that that would be politically impossible? Once again, his sound bites don't match up to any version of reality with which I'm familiar.

Update 2307 07 Sep: Larry Grant himself responds to Mr. Sali's "challenge" on payroll taxes much more eloquently than I did -- which explains why he's the one running for Congress. And since I'm updating, it gives me a chance to post a picture of the Underpants Gnomes for those who don't know what they look like:

It just occurred to me -- it would be fairly easy for some devious person with Photoshop "skillz" to replace Tweek's face with a picture of Mr. Sali...

Update 0013 08 Sep: If Mr. Sali gets elected, I'm probably going to get in really big trouble for this:

Congressman Bill Sali And Public Relations

There's an interesting article in today's Idaho Statesman about the problems our Congressman, Bill Sali, has had with his district director. While his staff is making all the right sounds about how the former state senator leaving after only five months is no big deal, it's fairly clear there's something else there. Congressman Sali himself apparently refused to be interviewed for the story; it's not like a Congressman should want to get his views out in the biggest newspaper in his district or anything. (/sarcasm)

Apparently, he and his remaining staff also don't feel the need to respond to questions submitted by constituents. Back in April, Adam challenged Idaho bloggers who don't support Bill Sali's policies to actually ask him to explain some of his seemingly inexplicable votes. I took him up on his challenge, and sent an E-mail to Congressman Sali through his website asking some questions. The website said I'd get a response in 2-6 weeks.

Well, it's been six weeks, and still no response. I guess I shouldn't be surprised; he didn't answer any of my questions during the campaign either, and he seems to be going out of his way to avoid any meaningful interaction with those who may oppose him (like he did during the campaign). I suppose it's time for a Letter to the Editor and see if that breaks anything loose.

Luckily, we in Idaho will have someone else to support for this seat in 2008. Larry Grant, who narrowly lost the 2006 run for this seat, has a website up that offers his views on what he would do differently as our Representative. And he has an option for readers to leave comments! That's something I bet you'll never see on a Bill Sali website.

An Open E-mail To The Bill Sali Campaign

Update 2117 04 Sept: I did get a response from the Ada County coordinator in the Sali campaign, saying they'd try to get me some answers. I'll keep you posted if I hear anything.

[Local Idaho politics warning!]

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I've been thinking about writing an E-mail to the campaign of the Republican nominee for the Idaho 1st Congressional District race, Bill Sali, to see if I could get his comments on some of the issues that have come up during the campaign. Too much modern political discourse involves the supporters of opposing candidates snarking at each other from their respective blogs, without anyone trying to find out what the opposing candidate might actually have to say about the issues. Being a Republican who's supporting Democrat Larry Grant in this race, I figure I have a foot on both sides of the divide, so I decided to try to bridge the gap, and give Mr. Sali's campaign a chance to answer some questions. Here's what I came up with to send to his campaign staff:

I'm Joel Kennedy, a mil-blogger (someone who writes a military-themed web log, or online journal) in Meridian. My website, The Stupid Shall Be Punished, gets about 500 visits per day -- making it, as near as I can tell, the 2nd most-visited blog in the Treasure Valley (behind only Clayton Cramer; notably, I get 2 to 3 times the daily visits of your main defender in the Idaho blogosphere, Adam Graham). I had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Sali at the Flag Day event at the Capitol building, where he gave a very good speech. He was very heartfelt in thanking me when we talked afterwards for my 21+ years of service in the Submarine Force, and I could tell he was sincere in doing so. While I've been a Republican my whole life, right now, for various reasons, I'm supporting Larry Grant in the 1st District Congressional race. Even so, I'm very interested in fairness, and would like to give the Sali campaign a chance to answer some questions and concerns that have come up among district bloggers. While bloggers (or "online journalists") are not traditional media, I would urge you not to ignore this potential source of getting your message out to the voters. I assure you that any response you provide to my questions will be reproduced without changes in my blog. (A copy of this E-mail has been posted in my blog here -- I'll put your response in the same post.)

Here are the questions that have been brought up:

1) Your website indicates that Mr. Sali intends to focus on "Supporting our troops" (as the last-listed "important issue"), but contains no additional information on how he intends to do so. Can you provide any specifics at all on how he intends to do this? Will he seek increases in the defense budget? Does he support Secretary Rumsfeld's proposal to reduce the number of active-duty troops?

2) Your website also mentions Mr. Sali's support for using the National Guard to defend the border against illegal immigrants. What Rules Of Engagement (ROE) would Mr. Sali expect for this mission? Does Mr. Sali support changes to the Posse Comitatus laws to actually allow the troops to do anything other than build fences, or does he envision that they'll just stand around and watch illegal immigrants cross the border, hoping that they can contact someone with arrest authority on the radio?

(The rest of the E-mail is in the extended entry)

3) Regarding Mr. Sali's recent vote in favor of Governor Risch's property tax reduction / sales tax increase: How does Mr. Sali reconcile his "yes" vote with his previously stated opposition to any tax increases? While it's true that many Idahoans (and all out-of-state vacation homeowners) will see a net reduction in taxes, non-homeowners (I've seen estimates that these make up 25-30% of the electorate) will end up paying more in taxes. Can Mr. Sali provide a clear explanation of his reasoning?

4) On TV last Friday night, a clip of Rep. Sali was shown where he said that those who opposed the Governor's plan (paraphrasing here) "apparently think it's OK for people to lose their houses because they can't pay property taxes". It was fairly obvious to essentially all interested observers that the opponents of the plan favored an alternate plan that would have similarly reduced property taxes for homeowners (along with no increase in the sales tax). Does Rep. Sali actually believe that those who opposed the Governor's plan really want people to lose their houses because they can't pay the property tax, or was he "fudging" the truth in his floor statement? If he does believe that was the case, is that an indication that Mr. Sali didn't really follow the issue? Can we expect him to do better as a Congressman?

5) Regarding the Vice President's recent fundraising visit to Boise, most media observers estimated that there were 150-200 contributors in the room. The Sali campaign put out a statement saying that there were "approximately 200-250" people there. It's been a couple of weeks now, so I'm guessing you've gotten the final numbers of contributors nailed down. How many people were actually there? Did you count Secret Service agents? Will those numbers be confirmed when you submit your next disclosure of campaign contributions? If not, why?

6) Regarding the recent fund-raising breakfast in Post Falls headlined by the Speaker of the House, Rep. Hastert, media observers said the Sali campaign initially stated that there were 120-140 contributors attending, but later issued a press release indicating that there were 150 contributors there. One person reported on the Spokesman-Review website that he estimated there were only 80 contributors in attendance, outside of the Speaker's group and the Sali campaign staff. How many people who paid the $35 to get in were really there? Will these numbers be reflected in your next campaign contribution disclosure? If not, why? And why aren't there any reports about the event on your website? I know if the Speaker of the House came to an event in my honor, I'd write about it.

7) Also regarding the fund-raising breakfast, there were media reports that your campaign had announced that the event was closed to the press in accordance with the Speaker's normal procedures. At a media availability, Rep. Hastert seemed surprised by this report, indicating that his events are normally not closed to the press. Did the Speaker's staff really ask you to close the event to the press, or did you do it because you were afraid of negative publicity from a 2nd consecutive lower-than-expected turnout for a high-profile guest? If they did ask you to do this, can you provide the name of the staffer that made this request? If they didn't, was the decision to close the event due to bad communications among your staff? If that was the case, do(es) the responsible staffer(s) still work for your campaign?

8) Especially with respect to the last three items, I think you can see that a reasonable observer might conclude that the Sali campaign is systematically over-estimating the number of attendees at fund-raising events. If it turns out, from your next campaign finance report, that the number of contributors were in fact lower than you reported, what will be your explanation? Will you blame poor staff work? If so, will you make a commitment that the staffers who made this mistake will not be part of your Congressional staff in D.C. if you're elected?

I look forward to your response to any or all of the questions I raised. As I said earlier, I will publish, without changes, any response you send in my online journal.

Thanks for your time,
Joel Kennedy -- "Bubblehead"

I Believe Bill Sali (This Time)

Long-time readers know that I'm not a big Bill Sali fan; I think my Congressman is among the most inept in the country and is mostly just an embarrassment to Idaho. This weekend, however, there's a new story that came out about his campaign, and I've gotta say I believe his side of the story.

The story in the Idaho Statesman discusses how the 527 group "Freedom's Watch" is running campaign commercials against Walt Minnick, Sali's moderate (and better funded) opponent in this November's election. The ads say that Minnick is opposed to more drilling; in fact, Walt supports more domestic oil production.

The controversy comes from who funds "Freedom's Watch". The founder of the group is Sheldon Adelson, a casino mogul who got a lot of his money from starting up gambling businesses in China. While it might seem like a conservative like Rep. Sali wouldn't necessarily want Chinese money supporting his campaign, his spokesman says that it's not really an issue. Despite the fact that Adelson was a big supporter of China getting the recent Olympics, there's no word yet on if famous local China-disliker Brandi Swindell will be protesting at Sali HQ against this source of support.

Normally, when you read about a 527 group "independently" helping out a campaign by attacking someone's opponent, people roll their eyes when they read about how there's "no coordination" between the campaign and the 527. In this case, however, I believe Congressman Bill Sali's spokesman, and here's why: I can't imagine Sali and his campaign/congressional staff (they seem to be one in the same) successfully coordinating a game of 3-on-3 basketball, let alone a major ad buy throughout the district with another group. In this case, I think Sali and his "crack" staff are telling the truth.

Thrown Out Of The Idaho Republican Party

[Local Idaho politics warning!]

I've been a Republican my whole life; I've never voted for a Democrat for President. I went door-to-door passing out campaign literature for a Republican Congressional candidate back in Nebraska in 1978. I wasn't active in politics during my 21+ years in the Navy, but always considered myself a Republican. Idaho Congressman Mike Simpson, however, apparently doesn't think that I am one.

What did I do to make him mad? Well, I'm supporting Democrat Larry Grant in the Idaho 1st Congressional District race against Republican Bill Sali. I've blogged before about why I'm upset with the current crop of Congressional Republicans (of whom Mike Simpson is one), and also about why I like Larry Grant over Bill Sali. This isn't a decision I've reached lightly -- I've put a lot of thought and research into it. I'm probably one of the few people who has met and spoken to both Grant and Sali on the campaign trail this year. (I talked to Sali last week after the Flag Day rally at the Capitol that Alan at IdaBlue blogged about recently. He's very personable when you're talking to him one-on-one, and will be a tough campaigner.) Because I'm "leaving the reservation", so to speak, to vote for a fiscally conservative, socially moderate Democrat with a record of real-world business success, Congressman Simpson (and apparently the Party Chairman) don't want me, or others like me, in the Republican Party anymore:

"I've heard some talk about Republicans for Grant," Simpson said. "There is no such thing as a Republican for Grant. They are Democrats."

Party Chairman Kirk Sullivan reiterated the point — and anyone who differed kept quiet at the convention.

I'll be honest -- this upsets me quite a bit. I feel I've done enough for my country to be accepted as a member of either one of the two main political parties, no matter who I happen to vote for in one election. And anyway -- who is Mike Simpson to throw me out of my own party? This is a guy who not only votes for every pork-laden budget bill that comes down the pike, he has the gall to actually defend earmarks as being required by the Constitution. I didn't realize that I had to believe that the Constitution stipulates that budget items be put into bills without a committee vote, frequently during late session conference committee sessions, in order to follow Simpson's brand of Republicanism. (Instapundit mentions today an earmark that needlessly took up a lot of the Submarine Force's time; more info is here.)

In all seriousness, the Republican Party as represented by Mike Simpson and Bill Sali isn't one I recognize. Simpson especially seems interested in the federal government spending more and more money, and both are apparently obsessed with what people are doing in the privacy of their own homes -- I always thought Republicans stood for less government interference. (Simpson has quite a long screed about how he intends to protect us from another glimpse of Janet Jackson's breast.) While Simpson would have us believe that we have to vote for Sali in support of Republican unity, it's clear from Sali's actions that his concept of unity doesn't permit any deviation from his party line.

My feeling is that it's the Idaho Republican Party that left me, not the other way around.

Congressman Bill Sali: Afraid To Debate Opponents With Military Experience

Tonight's news that my Congressman, Bill Sali, pulled out of a long-scheduled primary debate because of "scheduling issues" comes as no surprise. While some people would be ashamed to admit that they can't schedule their own time properly, Bill Sali seems to have no such compunction -- it's almost as if he recognizes that people already know he's a failure, so when he can't even clear the low bar that's been set of "show up where you agreed to show up", he isn't the least bit ashamed. My guess is that we won't see Congressman Sali showing up for any debates this year, because a) he doesn't want to have to talk about his record in places where there will be people who will question it, and b) because he's afraid to show further ignorance of military matters when debating someone with military experience (which is both his primary and general election opponents).

I don't blame Bill Sali for not serving in the military in his youth; he turned 18 in 1972, and the military wasn't exactly a popular place to be in those days. I do, however, wonder why a serving Congressman chooses to remain so ignorant of military culture that he doesn't even understand the difference between a unit award and a medal: "The U.S. Navy had previously awarded VO-67 the Navy Unit Commendation medal, a medal of lesser value and stature." I am glad that he helped VO-67 get their well-deserved upgrade, though, and hopefully he'll get some more people with military experience on his staff (campaign or otherwise) so he can learn more about the culture of the military he's supposed to be overseeing as a Representative.

Another Idaho Election Update

With just under two weeks to go before the election, it looks like Idaho may be getting ready to surprise some people. I've been talking a lot about the 1st District Congressional race matching Larry Grant against Bill Sali, but the race for Governor looks like it's heating up as well. According to a recent poll, Democrat Jerry Brady leads current 1st District Congressman "Butch" Otter by two percentage points -- within the polls margin of error, but still a significant improvement for Brady since the same polling organization showed him down 19 points in June.

The Larry Grant - Bill Sali race has been drawing the most national attention, though. The recent inclusion of Mr. Sali on the GOP "Watch List", along with the National Republican Congressional Committee's expenditure of over $340,000 on Sali's behalf, indicates that the national party knows that he's in trouble -- as well they should. This is a district that gave President Bush 69% of the vote in 2004, and Mr. Sali can't get above 50% in the polls. His performance in the televised debate last night surely didn't help him at all:

The evening got off to an awkward start when Sali insisted on reading a statement tarring Grant as liberal and comparing him to Bill Clinton, despite objections from the moderator, who twice told Sali that opening remarks were not allowed.

Supporters of Mr. Sali are continuing their barrage of negative advertisements, so it's hard to predict who will win. I think, though, that the news of Jerry Brady's improvement in the polls indicates that Idaho may very well be getting ready to send a message to the national Republican Party that traditional Republicans are sick of the fiscal irresponsibility and strategic incompetence of the current crop of Republican leaders in Congress.