Keeping the blogosphere posted on the goings on of the world of submarines since late 2004... and mocking and belittling general foolishness wherever it may be found. Idaho's first and foremost submarine blog. (If you don't like something on this blog, please E-mail me; don't call me at home.)

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Chinese, Russian 2008 Sub Patrols Revealed

I'm running late for work, so I'll just post some excerpts from an article that hit the wire this morning:
China nearly doubled the number of patrols by its fleet of attack submarines last year, surpassing Russia but still far behind the United States, the Federation of American Scientists reported Tuesday.
The report, based on declassified information provided by US naval intelligence, said Chinese attack submarines conducted 12 patrols in 2008, compared to seven in 2007, two in 2006 and none in 2005.
"While the increase in submarine patrols is important, it has to be seen in comparison with the size of the Chinese submarine fleet," said Hans Kristensen, director of the organization's nuclear information project.
"With approximately 54 submarines, the patrol rate means that each submarine on average goes on patrol once every four and a half years," he said.
The patrols may have been carried out by just the most modern and capable types of submarines in the Chinese fleet, the report said, noting that a new class of nuclear-powered Shang-class attack submarines is replacing the aging Han-class...
..."The patrol rate of the US attack submarine fleet, which is focused on long-range patrols and probably operate regularly near the Chinese coast, is much higher with each submarine conducting at least one extended patrol per year," it said.
"But the Chinese patrol rate is higher than that of the Russian navy, which in 2008 conducted only seven attack submarine patrols, the same as in 2007," it said.
China has yet to conduct a single patrol by a ballistic missile submarine, according to the report.
Here's the FAS report on which the article was based. So what do you think? Are we right to be worried about rival submarine forces that are, basically, operating at the junior varsity level right now?

33 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Are we right to be worried about rival submarine forces that are, basically, operating at the junior varsity level right now?"

Of course we are. If we wait until they reach the varsity level, it may be too late.

2/04/2009 6:17 AM

 
Blogger Liza said...

We should absolutely be worried! In addition, we need to ensure that we have an outstanding relationship with the Chinese if we ever intend on feeling safe.

2/04/2009 7:07 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As long as we operate our fleet in the same waters they patrol with their subs we need to pay attention. If our Navy was like their Navys and we stayed home and operated mainly off our own coasts, then we could pay less attention to them at this point.

How many years until the Chinese are conducting out of area patrols to our neck of the woods?

2/04/2009 7:09 AM

 
Anonymous Rick said...

While the are definitely operating at the JV level, if you put 50 subs (many old and mostly poorly/not trained) between China and Taiwan it will create a problem fast. Then when you add a massive army, it could be problematic.

I still rank China a military threat below North Korea and Iran. They are more of a economic threat. However, their subs will likely give a few of our boats something fun to do while out to sea.

Additionally, a strategic deterant is silly to leave sitting pierside. As speculated by many, their boomers must have some serious system problems.

Thats my 2 cents

2/04/2009 8:09 AM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

Will the China as we know it survive the next year....I think they got a 25% to be in the same form as they got now in a year.


Will China start rattling it’s sword as a means to coalesces the rebelling poor and unemployed. Will they make a challenge on Taiwan?

Think about it, they were more dependant on exports than most, they got a huge transition to go through and they don’t have a government defined by a Constitution as ours...they don’t have much flexibility to bring in new blood.

2/04/2009 8:47 AM

 
Blogger J120 Bowman said...

I've been out of the ASW game too long, but if the Chinese boats have the sound signature of old Victors and can be heard for miles, then as long as we can find them, we can sink them. If they are too quiet to find, then we have problems.

Personally, Diesel or AIP boats are much more of a threat to our targets, I mean carriers.

Let's face it, no machinery noise, no finding them! We've known that since the development of the Ohio boats!

2/04/2009 10:06 AM

 
Blogger J120 Bowman said...

Oh, by the way, I ask every real blogger here to do all of us favor.

In regards to the He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named troll, just take a deep breath, get a drink, go smoke a cigarette, or whatever else it takes to calm down and not respond to him.

Like a good chili, onion, cheesy Friday slider, he too shall pass!

2/04/2009 10:09 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the non patrols of the boomers, isn't that more a matter of the top government not trusting the nuclear weapons to be out of their control? Synopsis: While they really want the capability of the boomer, they don't really trust the Captain with that much power; he might even defect!

On the diseal boats, did they just get lucky when they surfaced in the wake of the Kitty Hawk?

2/04/2009 11:25 AM

 
Blogger Srvd_SSN_CO said...

Worried, no. Watchful, absolutely. The bulk of the Chinese military poses a credible, but manageable threat to the US and its interests. The PRC is one of just a few (UK, US, RUS, FR) to design and build nuclear submarines. What problems they have now they will work through, just like everyone else; so they should not be discounted.

As for PRC patrols in our waters...I'm not losing any sleep over that one. Bring it--it will make it easier to find someone to track during local ops.

2/04/2009 11:51 AM

 
Blogger Mark Hughes said...

For anyone seeking to expand their knowledge and understanding of international economic and military strategies, see:

"The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century" by George Friedman (Jan 27, 2009). Friedman is the founder of Stratfor.

I have read the book and can recommend it. Friedman is clearly a pragmatist, and focuses strongly on what is simply both in each nation seeking their best interests as bound by geo-economic limitations.

Would suggest reading it with the author's well-advised notions and cautions regarding geopolitics in mind, as well as the obvious uncertainties in forecasting specifics. Also, general outcomes are more certain than time-frames.

The Russian Federation, for instance, may already have begun the process of jumping the shark for the 2nd and last time...something Friedman didn't expect until the 2010's (not too far off, actually).

Expect to see the role of the U.S. Navy featured in a very big way.

Sample quotes:

"From the end of World War II onward, the combined weight of all the world's existing fleets was insignificant compared to American naval power.

"This highlights the single most important geopolitical fact in the world: the United States controls all of the oceans. No other power in history has been able to do this.

"At the end of the day, maintaining its control of the world's oceans is the single most important goal for the United States geopolitically."

2/04/2009 11:57 AM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

Hey Bowman,

You would like me if you got to know me?

mike

2/04/2009 12:08 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have doubts about the whole Kitty Hawk incident. I'm not convinced it ever happened - as I understand it there were only two people who say they saw anything, a lookout and an aviator, and there was never any contact by any sensor on the boat. Was it ever really there?

2/04/2009 12:21 PM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIwZsbBXpNQ

The Next 100 years

1 of 3

2/04/2009 12:40 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are we right to be worried about rival submarine forces that are, basically, operating at the junior varsity level right now?

Is a frog's ass waterproof?

2/04/2009 3:58 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think we have to worry about the Chinese Navy - yet. When will we? When they start losing subs.

Here's my reasoning: when their optempo is higher, they will have more boats at sea longer. Combine that with boats that have material problems and officers without a huge amount of experience (and no chiefs at all to save them), and you will lose boats. Absent those losses, we must assume their tempo isn't picking up that much.

2/04/2009 5:13 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's really hard to comment on this post without beadwindowing the heck out of myself, so all I'll say is (as they supposedly say), 'we live in interesting times'.

2/04/2009 10:33 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon @ 041713T:

Losses like the ming 361?

2/04/2009 10:38 PM

 
Blogger Srvd_SSN_CO said...

Losing subs?? No experience?? The Aussies and the Canucks, and most other world Navies, have very few subs. To say they have no experience is completely wrong. The PRC certainly has experience, just not in our arena...yet. To assume they don't know how to operate their ships because they have relatively few, would be a big mistake.

2/05/2009 2:45 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Been out of town for a few days renewing Merchant Marine Documents with the Coast Guard REC in Oakland CA.

I'm pretty much on board with served SSN CO comments. PRC is a land focused power. Yes they have a Navy. However, if you don't go to sea and train, train, and train some more, you not going to be much good at anything. I'm reminded of a comment made by one of my skippers on SS-580 after a 60 day'er "in that part of the world. "We got negative intelligence--nothings happening." I read the referenced article on line earlier, and it looks to me like things haven't changed much in 30 years. And BTW, we've been keeping a watchfull eye on those guys for decades.

My take--we better be hoping China will buy up all those treasury notes we'll be selling to finance the economic bailout, otherwise the Dollar won't be worth much, and inflation will be going way-up.

I think India and Russia got a lot more to worry about RE: China than we do.

My two cents and keep a zero bubble......

DBFTMC(SS)USNRET

2/05/2009 2:29 PM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

I never understood the forces or powers in the USA who thought the public should think we are beholden to the Chinese because they were purchasing our treasuries. I always wondered why we all were fed that pollution. Whose agenda does that carry. Is it the bond, treasuries, traders, sellers and buyers, who want use to feel guilty about that...how about the conservatives.
The “I hate the government” conservatives’ game was, the Chinese gratitude is going to wear out, you better start massively cutting the size of government and you better start with cutting programs to the poor.
Didn’t our treasury secretary who doesn’t pay taxes, didn’t he say the Chinese were controlling their currency such they were a protectionist and creating a trade war with the USA. Depressing USA wages!
I think this actually is a WalMart conspiracy to set Chinese and USA currency, in order to boost profits and gain market share.
How many subs did WalMart money purchase for China. That is fascinating, the more global trading there is with us...the bigger our military services have to be in order to counteract that potential development .

2/05/2009 4:23 PM

 
Anonymous Hugh Jass said...

Mike has a thing against WalMart. After he was booted out of the Navy, then fired from Vermont Yankee, he worked for Walmart, and they canned him too. Fired from WalMart??? What a pathetic loser...

2/06/2009 9:33 AM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

Just think about it, they got American, Chinese and whatever submarines patrolling underwater all over the world, and we have not a clue with what is really driving this activity.

2/06/2009 10:56 AM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

Walmart was my greatest firing ever. I called in a OSHA safety inspection and discovered grave safety violation throughout the New England WalMart stores. Remember that as we witness the great labor movement we have even seen developing in the coming months...it’s going to be bigger than anything in the 1930’s. WalMart is going to be unionized or disassembled.

I also got fired from Crotched Mountain Rehabilitation center too. It is a type of children’s institutional mental hospital in NH. I was sent up there by troubled mothers’ who have disabled children who were housed in there. They though I could fix it. I watched one child die from a medical mistake and I seen many other children injured by medical mistakes and staff abuse.

You might know a famous vice president of this facility...his father built and owns the joint. He is our pending Commerce Secretary, investigation ongoing, he is NH senator Jugg Gregg. They invented the word “chicken hawk” for him.

Another one was United Natural Foods Incorporated...I was a truck driver for them...they are the trucking distributor of most of your organic foods. It was another great firing. I spent two years driving a tractor trailer delivering organic foods in NYC to small and large organic stores....everywhere. Drove all through Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan in a 48’ tractor trailer...had a stop right next to the World Trade Center. Said my prayers there often and startled by the size of the hole. I amazedly watched them militarize NYC during the republic national convention...Brooklyn reminded me of Israel with all the bristling military troops showing M-16s and check points going into and out of the city.

I got a national NTBS emergency safety bulletin concerning mechanical troubles with my truck air brakes, as my brakes were constantly going out of adjustment and limiting my braking capability. Every trucking firm in the USA were treating symptoms and not fixing what was really broken. Called in the DOT for an investigation on these guys after the truck drivers got into a rash of accidents. That’s what I got fired for.

Really, I am a expert with getting fired...I’ve gotten fired so often, just another day at the shop for me when I get fired. The outcome of a job is to get fired!

I got a honorable discharge from the Navy. By the way, how many of you was in the cold war and patrolling off the coast of Russia, went without the main propulsion for a day or two, with only the outboard?

Surprisingly I am out of work and looking for a job.

2/06/2009 11:03 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mike there are jobs where you go to a clients office to collect on debts owed. I hear this type of job calls for being very obnoxious while sitting in the waiting room of the client and maybe smelling bad and picking you nose, etc.

Finally they get tired of you and pay the account so you leave!

2/06/2009 1:38 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Just think about it, they got American, Chinese and whatever submarines patrolling underwater all over the world, and we have not a clue with what is really driving this activity."

Couldn't let this one slide by.

Mike,

If you had any military experience in general or an ounce of submarine experience in particular, you would have a clue.

2/06/2009 1:40 PM

 
Anonymous Guinness said...

Don't you guys know that Mike is a well-known whistle-blower?

He reminds me a lot of another well-known whistle-blower I knew many years ago.

Except, she didn't call it a "whistle." And she didn't "blow" as much as, you know, the opposite...

2/06/2009 3:40 PM

 
Anonymous Hugh Jass said...

Mike, you blew the whistle and got fired? Hmmm, its curious that you weren't protected under one of the various whistle-blower laws. Maybe its because your allegations were baseless and unsupportable, like your comments on this website. I'd say your firings were probably justified, and you had no basis for a claim against your former employer.

Congrats, though, on being unemployed...

2/06/2009 4:36 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do you guys keep jacking-off Mike??? He gets off when he gets people to respond to his inane comments. Just ignore him, he'll get tired of posting his comments and just go away when everybody ignores him.

Keep a zero bubble.......

DBFTMC(SS)USNRET

2/06/2009 7:01 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do you guys keep jacking-off Mike??? He gets off when he gets people to respond to his inane comments. He'll get tired of posting his comments and just go away when everybody ignores him.

Keep a zero bubble.......

DBFTMC(SS)USNRET

2/06/2009 7:02 PM

 
Anonymous Hugh Jass said...

Ohhhh. That's a mental image I did NOT need...

2/06/2009 9:04 PM

 
Blogger Mike Mulligan said...

I wonder how far I can go without bubblehead censoring me or throwing me off the site. I know he going to blame me for the whole show.

As we are contemplating the economic collapse of the USA and the world, most people blame it on the “I hate the government conservatives and libertarians”, most of the world blames this on our republicans, it goes to say I never had a chance of a fair opportunity to display my case because all of government was rigged against the truth.

What everyone likes about me, or why they fear me, is because I figured out how to play the state government off the federal government. I said I don’t have to win a court case, if I just want to do good, all I have to do is to force a governor out on a podium in a news conference into a safety conflict with the federal government. It should be noted I had to blackmailed her career. All I have to do is figure out how amplify out my cry for help and drive all arms of government into fixing Vermont Yankee. Of course I had to use my nuclear skills, my appreciation of what moves people, I choose a intermittent short on a small fuel pool pump. You want to give people a subtle taste of something is fishy going on here...then let them open the door and shockingly discover a book full of rule and policies violations.

Not many people get to prevent a nuclear accident. You want talk about my secret $50,000 legal agreement to keep my mouth shut that I signed with the executives.

As I signed half the agreement check, the parent company stock price was historical heading for the roof. Within a year the stock price was beginning a steep decline than ended by being cut half. They were bouncing around the bottom of the ocean of possible bankruptcy for about a decade. A lot of people are wondering what would have happened if I didn’t sensitize everyone to the effect of misplace priorities and budget cutting while the stock was at a historic level. It took them about a decade to recover there stock price to there historic high.

I bet you all you guys are pissing your pants that I am a whistlblower.

2/07/2009 4:02 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just finished reading reviews of two new books on China. "Catastrophe and Contention in Rural China", and "Factory girls: From village to City in a Changing China."

My take--China has plenty of internal problems with distrust of Communist Government stemming from cumlative effects of Mao's cultural revolution of the 60's. This is coupled with the ongoing collapse of the factory economy in China.

Dennis Blair quoted in SF Chronicle this morning, international termoil and instability if economic problems persist beyond a year.

Just reinforces my belief that we don't have much to be concerned about re; PLAN.

My two cents and keep a zero bubble......

DBFTMC(SS)USNRET

2/13/2009 12:04 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sweelenJust finished reading reviews of two new books on China. "Catastrophe and Contention in Rural China", and "Factory girls: From village to City in a Changing China."

My take--China has plenty of internal problems with distrust of Communist Government stemming from cumlative effects of Mao's cultural revolution of the 60's. This is coupled with the ongoing collapse of the factory economy in China.

Dennis Blair quoted in SF Chronicle this morning, international termoil and instability if economic problems persist beyond a year.

Just reinforces my belief that we don't have much to be concerned about re; PLAN.

My two cents and keep a zero bubble......

DBFTMC(SS)USNRET

2/13/2009 12:05 PM

 

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