Minnick Defeats Sali
The race for Congress here in Idaho's 1st District pitted a socially moderate, fiscally conservative businessman/veteran who happens to be a Democrat against an incumbent, Bill Sali, who's basically an ineffective embarrassment to the district.
Because the MSM won't get off their butts and make the call, it looks like it's up to me to do so. With 452 of 469 precincts reporting, and Walt Minnick with a lead of over 4,500 votes, Bubblehead is projecting that Walt Minnick has defeated Bill Sali in Idaho's 1st Congressional District. The outstanding precincts are 5 in Canyon County (where Sali leads 54-46) and 12 in Bonner County (where Minnick leads 54-46). Congratulations to Walt, his staff, his supporters, and to all the citizens of this district who won't be embarrassed by their Congressman anymore!
Update 0610 05 November: The 5 precincts in Canyon County reported, reducing Minnick's lead to 3,500 votes. This leaves only the 12 precincts in far-north Bonner County yet to report, but Minnick was ahead 54-46 in the 21 precincts that had already reported there, so there're just not enough votes left for Sali to make up the difference. (In Idaho, absentee ballots have to be at the election office by 8 p.m. on election day, so there won't be a wait for them.)
Update 0859 05 November: One of the TV stations finally called it; it's now down to 4 precincts left, and Minnick has a 3,600 vote lead. Bill Sali supporter Adam has conceded the race (and turned comments off for his concession post, which is probably a smart move on his part), but the actual Congressman is tardy; I wonder if he's going to try to stretch this out until it gets embarrassing, which would be his style. Maybe he's hoping he'll get named to the soon-to-be vacant Lieutenant Governor spot -- after all, he's been such a big help to Gov. Otter in the past. *snicker*
Update 1008 05 November: Still no word from Bill Sali on when he's going to concede; Walt Minnick says he'll hold off on declaring victory until the last three precincts report. Chris at The Unequivocal Notion has a very good analysis about what this means for Idaho politics, and The MountainGoat report is collecting other reactions to this huge story.
Update 2140 05 November: Bill Sali has announced he's not going to concede the race until he's sure "all the votes are counted", despite the fact that all precincts have reported and the final margin is well outside the recount criteria. Representative de-elect Sali's non-concession notwithstanding, the two other current members of the Idaho Congressional delegation who are returning to D.C. next year (Rep. Simpson and Sen. Crapo) have already graciously called to congratulate Walt Minnick. "Graciousness" is a word we already knew wasn't in soon-to-be former Congressman Bill Sali's vocabulary, so I'm not surprised he's causing himself and his Party more embarrassment by failing to do the honorable thing. At this juncture, I think it's become a moot point; Congressman-elect Minnick will get sworn in on Janurary 3rd whether Bill Sali has "conceded" or not. And if the Capitol Police have to haul Sali and his staff out of the Congressional offices on that date because they're still not giving up, so be it.
Update 1253 06 November: Bill Sali did end up conceding in a voice mail to Walt Minnick last night. Dennis Mansfield has a positive post about his friend, the soon-to-be former Congressman.
posted by Bubblehead at 5:41 AM
10 Comments:
Congratulations! We didn't fare as well here.
11/05/2008 7:23 AM
Being close enough to the campaign to film a commercial and presumably talk to some of his staff do you have any sense how Mr. Minnick and other reasonable democrats going to prevent the vocal radical left wing of the party from embarrassing the rest of the coalition?
I know he’ll just be a freshman congressman, but nevertheless it seems moderate democrats’ ability to reign in the “loony left” will be the key to being perceived as an effective government. If anything doomed the republicans it was their wholehearted embrace of the “loony right” – see Terry Schaivo, abortion = breast cancer, War in Iraq, The “Real” America, etc.
11/05/2008 7:37 AM
The "Blue Dog" Democrats form enough of a critical mass in the House that Speaker Pelosi will need their support to get anything passed. Since these moderate Democrats from conservative districts know they have to go in front of the voters in two years, and that they'll be thrown out if they try to take away our guns or pass the Freedom of Choice Act or fail to fund our nation's military. Pelosi has to be concerned with keeping these Congresspeople's votes, whereas she never gave a 2nd thought to if Bill Sali was going to support her or not.
11/05/2008 7:47 AM
Bubblehead, I love ya, but you are completely delusional. With some exceptions, of course, your beloved moderate Democrats will fall in line.
11/05/2008 7:50 AM
I'm thinking the most telling sign of the election was that Cindy Shehan got 17% of the vote in San Francisco-- Pelosi's worst showing in the election.
Basically, what that tells Nancy (and even Mr. Newsom, the mayor) is that they are too "Right". [I can't believe I just typed that] The base in SF seems to think that the democratic party needs to move 'more' to the left.
Basically, since I'm from a land which continues to elect Harry Reid, and I live in a city where Gavin Newsom and Nancy Pelosi are the 'conservative' choices, I offer this advice: Be careful supporting a democrat-- they have to placate the base, and do what their voters want.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some strange legislation pass very soon.
11/05/2008 7:59 AM
"...they have to placate the base, and do what their voters want."
This statement can be made of both parties. Its probably more applicable (or perhaps just more visible) to the party in power in the seat they hold (or want to hold (cf. J McCain).
I was impressed with McCain's concession speech and it certainly sounded much more like the McCain I knew and wanted to vote for in the past.
Carl
11/05/2008 9:52 AM
I love ya too, girlfriday. Here's my reasoning on why Walt Minnick will do the right thing: I really don't think he'd spend $550,000 of his own money just to become a one-term Congressman, which he knows he'd be if he voted for really obnoxious things like gun restrictions or the Freedom of Choice Act. Sure, he'll vote for things like improved health care and tax bills that raise taxes for the more well off while cutting them for the vast majority of Idahoans, but on the social issues that really matter to Idahoans I think he'll do the right thing. And if he votes for FOCA or onerous gun ownership restrictions, I'll vote for his opponent in 2010 -- as I think most of the rest of the 30% or so of his supporters who voted for McCain for President would do also. And Walt knows that.
11/05/2008 10:19 AM
I think President elect Obama is to smart to take on hot button issues right after taking office as Bill Clinton did. while there are more Dems in both the Senate and the House for the next Congress many of them come from districts that have a conservative base. They will not all line up in lock step with the president elect in the manner of the Republican majority from 2000-2006. He has his work cut out for him, and I think he is up to it.
I think the civil rights "old guard" are in for a major surprise. The President Elect is a post civil rights baby who spent his formative years in Hawaii. He has acknowledged the importance of the civil rights struggle however he is not directly connected to it the way the old guard are. I don't believe there will be any special treatment for African Americans from his administration despite the unspoken fears of older white voters. Jesse Jackson "got a clue" a couple months ago when he made his remarks. Those guys need to "put in their papers" that stuff won't fly anymore.
Just a thought on last nights nationwide excitement and celebration for Obama's victory. The last time I can remenber such an outpouring of public emotion and excitement was the election of John Kennedy in 1960 which also marked a generational shift. A major Issue in that election was the fact that JFK was Catholic. You would not believe how the Nixon machine worked that issue. I was 18 years old and had been in the Navy for a year in the steam torpedo shop SubBase Pearl. I was too young to vote. I was a Kennedy supporter and didn't care a hoot about his religion. I think the todays youth vote see's Obamas race in a similar light as unimportant, and good for them.
I'm with Carl re: McCains concession speech. He was a class act last night! Wish he would have been that way during the campaign.
Yep, it was quite an election!
Keep a zero bubble........
DBFTMC(SS)USNRET
11/05/2008 1:01 PM
You know better than I do what your district is like, Bubblehead. But if I had to make a choice in your election, I wouldn't vote for Walt Minnick. Here's why.
From his campaign site:
As a U.S. Army veteran, I know that leaving our troops bogged down in the middle of a civil war isn’t solving anything, and it’s keeping us from taking the fight to terrorists elsewhere in the world.
We must force the Iraqis to take charge their own political future and of their country’s security. This also will take engaging the international community and aggressively pursuing new diplomatic solutions while gradually but clearly executing a plan to bring our troops home.
This war has created an entire generation that will spend decades dealing with the aftereffects of almost 30,000 dead and wounded American soldiers.
It’s also costing us $200 million per day – all while we’re shortchanging our country’s veterans’ program. Our nation’s returning heroes and their families must see us fulfill every medical and educational promise our country made to them.
This is one of Washington’s worst failures. It’s time to begin a staged turnover of security responsibility to the Iraqi government.
Yes, he sounds like a pretty good guy. Yes, Bill Sali sounds like some sort of idiot. But despite that, I just can't vote to put more people holding that position on the Iraq War into Congress.
11/05/2008 2:08 PM
Democrats from conservative districts know they have to go in front of the voters in two years, and that they'll be thrown out if they try to take away our guns or pass the Freedom of Choice Act or fail to fund our nation's military. Pelosi has to be concerned with keeping these Congresspeople's votes, whereas she never gave a 2nd thought to if Bill Sali was going to support her or not.
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