Keeping the blogosphere posted on the goings on of the world of submarines since late 2004... and mocking and belittling general foolishness wherever it may be found. Idaho's first and foremost submarine blog. (If you don't like something on this blog, please E-mail me; don't call me at home.)

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Bubblehead's Early Take On The 2008 Election

Given that the upcoming Presidential election has generated unprecedented attention this early in the election cycle, I thought I'd look into my crystal ball and see what I think might happen in the next 20 months.

The most important development is that all candidates will be aware of the existence of The Daily Show even at the beginning of the campaign, so we'll miss out on a lot of humor opportunities.

More seriously, it's pretty clear that the Democratic nominee will be either Sen. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Sen. Barack Obama, or Al Gore. I don't really expect Al Gore to run, but I do expect him to continue refusing to officially say he's not running, which will tend to keep some money from the other candidate's coffers in 2007 -- he's that much of an egomaniac. Seeing that Sen. Clinton has been the most moderate of the bunch, I'm thinking that the Democrats are missing out on a pretty good chance of winning the election by not rallying behind an electable candidate, like Gov. Bill Richardson.

The Republican nominee will be one of these three: Sen. John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney. The evangelicals will shoot themselves in the foot by continuing to agitate for candidates who have no chance of winning, until the eventual nominee will realize he doesn't need them to win -- this will actually help the Republican candidate, as moderates will be more likely to vote for someone the evangelicals can't stand. The thing is, they should like Gov. Romney; they just can't get around their "Mormons aren't really Christians" bias. (One good side effect of this campaign will be that as people ask questions about Romney's religion, they'll begin to realize that us Mormons really aren't that much different than anyone else -- just ask any of my wives.)

Going out on a limb here, I think it'll be a Clinton/Edwards ticket for the Dems vs. a McCain/Giuliani Republican slate. (As much as I'd like to see a McCain/Lieberman "national unity" ticket, just because it would tick off the Kos Kids and DUmmies so much, I don't think it'll happen -- I could see Sen. Lieberman being offered SecDef if McCain wins, though; this has the added benefit, for Republicans, of turning his Senate seat over to the GOP.) McCain should win the general election by about 5% in the popular vote, and should hold all the 2004 Bush states, plus Pennsylvania.

As usual, I reserve the right to change my predictions as new information becomes available.


Blogger Zagco said...

I agree that Bill Richardson is the best hope for the Democrats. Yet, they seem totally disinterested in the guy. There are some rumors about womanizing, and he did really, really make Senator Robert Byrd mad when he was Secretary of Energy, causing Bird to scold him in a committee hearing and tell him that he would never be confirmed for anything ever again in the Senate.

3/08/2007 8:58 AM

Blogger reddog said...

It's way early to predict tickets. In order to win, the Reps need to get the Iraq issue behind them. They haven't even begun that yet. Chuck Hagel would do that for them. Team him up with a Southern, like Graham and you'd have a formidable ticket.

The Dems don't have a contender. Hiliary has the fire in her belly but nobody trusts her. Their only hope, so far is to coast through on Bush loathing. If you guys don't throw Bush under the bus, it might be good enough. His negative potential, at this point, seems unlimited.

There is still time for serious candidates to emerge.

3/08/2007 12:35 PM

Blogger Dale said...

"Just ask any of my wives."


Thanks for the great chuckle.


3/08/2007 2:57 PM

Anonymous chrys said...

Bold attempt! It's so early and "new" garbage keeps falling out! i.e. Obama's old parking tickets?!?! duh! Figure that current contenders will cannibalize each other and late entries will take over. You've inspired me to create such a post!

3/09/2007 1:33 AM

Anonymous BKT(SS) said...

Two Words

Fred Thompson

3/09/2007 4:33 PM

Blogger merjoem32 said...

nice views ans predictions. It's still a long way to the election so it's best to tune in to the latest recent election 2008 polls. I'm sue everyone's election predictions will be based on the information that comes out as we progress further into the 2008 presidential race.

3/12/2007 12:06 PM


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